Anyone sad to say goodbye to 2008? Today, the 31st of December is the last chance to talk about the best of 2008 and what to do in 2009, so articles are everywhere.
For travel, the predictions seem to be that 2009 will be a tough year. Airlines will continue to struggle (as if that mattered to anyone's travel plans anyway!); and credit will be tight. However, when I talk to people, especially people in the know like CPA's and other business and tax advisors, the overarching thing seems to be fear. There are problems out there, but there seems to be money on the sidelines and a pent up demand for services and goods that is not breaking free for now due to fear.
Travel consulting firm Xola believes that 'pent up' demand will continue to rise in 2009 and then explode in 2010 when the overal 'global climate' improves. What most are predicting is a slow 2009 and then late in the year things will start to change. Demand will take off in 2010 and so then will all associated services. What will make this change? Perception mostly, but that will be rooted in the general 'feeling' of businesses and consumers. Banks that feel ok to lend again will help business get rolling which will then reinvest and spend and when the media starts talking about these good things the consumer will start to feel like its safe to go out again. That is when the money will start to flow again.
So, that's the perception issue. How can you get a deal in 2009 if you want to go? I can only address what I think is applicable for Europe since that is what we study and sell. Will I go to Europe in 2009? You betcha. I plan to be at the Tour de France and ok, its business, but I will take the family too. So, I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm also lining up my air tickets now. Space and routing is the factor; and I'm going to know exactly what that is going to cost me now and then work on the rest over the next 6 months and find ways to save.
What can people do? The euro is back up again from previous lows; so be aware of what the valuations are and watch for a time to lock in some services. Just 3 weeks ago services could have been had, and prepaid, at 10% less than today. So, know what is a good rate. For 2009, I would say anything below 1.33 dollars US to Euros is good. Canadians, Aussies - you have to know your market likewise.
Deals will abound this year. Suppliers are cutting margins just to cover costs and 'stay alive'. Another idea, suggested by me - a tour operator/supplier: book the pre-packaged tour! The more customization requested, the more costs have to be increased to adapt and pass on. We offer self guided trips that can go any date; if you book a package as we offer it, you will get our best price which is posted. We spread certain costs of support and route development out and once its created, we have lower costs to reproduce it. If we have to create something new, then costs are higher. Now, perhaps it sounds less 'unique' to book the package off the shelf, but speaking of our product which is mostly self-guided, that couldn't be less true. Its not like 5000 people per week are doing this, like some stomp up the Eiffel Tower. You will most likely encounter very few others doing it on the same dates and so it will feel like your own personal program. Et voila, yet another reason Self Guided is superior. Don't forget that the cost is WAY less than a guided trip.
Bring on 2009! Happy New Year!
L
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